The time for decision has come. On September 24th we will know the great champion of the 2023 Copa do Brasil: São Paulo or Flamengo.
São Paulo has the advantage of having won the first game 1-0 at Maracanã, with a headed goal from Jonathan Calleri.
But will this be enough to guarantee the title for the São Paulo team? Or will Flamengo be able to turn the score around and lift the trophy for the fourth time in history?
To try to answer this question, we used artificial intelligence to analyze the teams' rosters, recent games and competition statistics. The result was surprising and may disappoint fans of both clubs.
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But before we reveal our AI’s prediction, let’s take a look at how it came to this conclusion. It took into account several factors, such as:
• The teams' performance in the 2023 Copa do Brasil: São Paulo, to reach the final, eliminated Palmeiras in the quarterfinals and Corinthians in the semifinals. Flamengo had to eliminate Athlético Paranaense in the quarterfinals and Grêmio in the semifinals.
• Team performance in the 2023 Brazilian Championship: Flamengo is in fourth place in the Brazilian Championship with 39 points, 11 wins, 6 losses and 6 draws. São Paulo is in thirteenth place in the Brazilian Championship with 28 points, 7 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses.
• Strength of the squads: Flamengo has a more expensive and more experienced squad than São Paulo. According to the website Transfermarkt, the market value of Flamengo's squad is R$1.2 billion, while São Paulo's is R$600 million. In addition, the average age of Flamengo's squad is 28 years old, while São Paulo's is 26 years old.
• The strength of the fans: São Paulo will have the advantage of playing at home with the support of its fans. São Paulo fans have been very supportive of the team in home games and the prediction is that the Morumbi stadium will be very close to its maximum capacity for the final game: 66,000 fans. According to data from the CBF, São Paulo has the third largest fan base in Brazil with around 18 million fans. Flamengo has the largest fan base in Brazil with around 42 million fans.
And now, the moment of truth. What is our AI's prediction for the 2023 Copa do Brasil champion?
According to our AI, the great champion of the 2023 Copa do Brasil will be: São Paulo
The prediction is that the tricolor will be champion with a draw at home.
Based on the analyzed data, our AI calculated the probabilities of each possible outcome for the second leg of the 2023 Copa do Brasil final. See below:
Sao Paulo 1 x 1 Flamengo 20%
Sao Paulo 0 x 0 Flamengo 18%
Sao Paulo 1 x 0 Flamengo 16%
Sao Paulo 0 x 1 Flamengo 15%
Sao Paulo 2 x 0 Flamengo 12%
But of course this is just a data-driven prediction and not a certainty. Football is an unpredictable sport and anything can happen in a decisive game.
Therefore, the best thing to do is watch the game and cheer for your favorite team.